杏花村的女人,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzo

小编推荐 · 2019-04-08

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感谢思想导图作者

Bella,大四老腊肉,酷爱英语


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The television will be revolutionised

电视职业将发作革命性的改动  

英文部分选自经济学人20180730 Brieifing版块

Netlixonomics

奈飞经济学


The television will be revolutionised

电视职业将发作革命性的改动  


Netflix is moving television beyond time-slots and national markets

Netflix正在将电视事务拓宽到各个时段和国外商场


It may make screen-based entertainment a winner-takes-most business

视频文娱将成为一盘赢家通吃的生意


Jun 30th 2018| AMSTERDAM, HOLLYWOOD AND LOS GATOS

2018年6月30日-阿姆斯特丹,好莱坞和洛斯加托斯


IN THE heyday of the talkie, Louis B. Mayer, head of the biggest studio, was Hollywood’s lion king. In the 1980s, with the studio system on the wane, “superagent” Michael Ovitz was often described as the most powerful man in town. Now the honour falls to someone who used to run a video store in Phoenix, Arizona.


在有声电影展开得如火如荼的时期里,最大制片公司的老板路易斯梅尔(Louis B. Mayer)是其时的好莱坞之王。到了20世纪80年代,跟着电影制片厂体系的式微,人们常常称超级经纪人迈克尔奥维茨(Michael Ovitz)是镇上最有权势的人。而现在,这样的荣誉落在了一个从前在亚利桑那州凤凰城运营过一家音像店的人身上。


Ted Sarandos joined Netflix, a DVD-rental firm, in 2000. In 2011, when Netflix was first moving into streaming video, he bought “House of Cards”, a television drama starring Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright and produced by, among others, the film director David Fincher, for $100m. The nine-figure statement of intent was widely derided as profligate, showing that Netflix might be a source of cash but scarcely offered serious competition. A mail-order video store could hardly be expected to take on networks and studios which took 杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzodecades to build and were notoriously difficult to run.


泰德萨兰多斯(Ted Sarandos)于2000年参加一家名为Netflix的DVD租借公司。2011年,当Netflix初次进军流媒体视频范畴时,他以1亿美元买下了由凯文史派西(Kevin Spacey)和罗宾怀特(Robin Wright)主演、大卫芬奇(David Fincher)导演的电视剧《纸牌屋》版权。人们遍及对这一巨额收买不以为然,以为Netflix虽然资金雄厚,但并不能对同行构成严峻威胁——电视剧和电影两者都需求数十年的惨淡运营,而一起把握二者对Netflix这样的DVD邮递商来说难如登天。


Instead it has become an industry in and of itself. Mr Sarandos, Netflix’s chief content officer, and his colleagues will spend $12bn-13bn this year—more than any studio spends on films, or any television company lays out on stuff that isn’t sport. Their viewers will get 82 feature films in a year when Warner Brothers, the Hollywood studio with the biggest slate, will send cinemas only 23. (Disney, the most profitable studio, is putting out just ten.) Netflix is producing吴辉简历 or procuring 700 new or exclusively licensed television shows, including more than 100 scripted dramas and comedies, dozens of documentaries and children’s shows, stand-up comedy specials and unscripted reality and talk shows. And its ambitions go far beyond Hollywood. It is currently making programmes in 21 countries, including Brazil, Germany, India and South Korea.


可是,Netflix自身已自成范畴。Netflix首席内容官萨兰多斯及其同僚本年将开销120亿至130亿美元,这比任何电影公司在电影上的花费或任何电视公司在非体育项目上的花费多。观众在一年内能够收看82部故事片,而阵型最奢华的好莱坞电影公司华纳兄弟只会上线23部(最挣钱的电影公司金财涌迪士尼只推出了10部) 。Netflix正在制造和收买700部新的或独家授权的电视节目,其间包含100多部电视剧和喜剧、数十废后芙兮部纪录片和儿童节目、单口喜剧特辑以及真人秀和脱口秀。它的野心远不止好莱坞。现在,Netflix正在21个国家制造节目,包含巴西、德国、印度和韩国。


Mr Sarandos buys quality as well as quantity with his billions. From Mr Fincher on, he has hired directors both famous and interesting, including Spike Lee, the Wachowski siblings and the Coen brothers. He is building a bench of established television hit-makers: Ryan Murphy (creator of “Glee” and “American Horror Story”) and Shonda Rhimes (creator of “Grey’s Anatomy” and “How to Get Away with Murder”) both recently signed up. David Letterman has come out of retirement to do a talk show. Barack and Michelle Obama have signed a production deal, too. The money helps: Mr Murphy’s deal is reportedly worth $300m; Mr Letterman is said to be getting $2m a show. But so does the company’s growing reputation. “They want to be on the channel that they watch,” Mr Sarandos says.


萨兰多斯斥资数十亿美元招募了大批精英人才。从芬奇开端,他雇用了一大批有名又风趣的导演,包含斯派克.李(Spike Lee)、沃卓斯基兄弟(the Wachowski siblings)以及科恩兄弟(the Coen brothers)。他正打造一支电视剧制造天团,包含《欢喜合唱团》及《美国恐惧故事》的制片人瑞恩•墨菲(Ryan Murphy);《实习医生格蕾》及《逍遥法外》的制片人珊达.瑞姆斯(Shonda Rhimes)都新近签约加盟;大卫赖特曼(David Letterman)现已复出,开端做一档脱口秀;奥巴马配偶也签署了制造协议。这一笔投入行之有效:墨菲的合约据报道价值3亿美元; 莱特曼每场脱口秀将入账200万美元;这家公司的口碑也越来越好。萨兰多斯称,他们想占有人们的视界。

注:quality as well as quantity:结合下文内容来看,这儿的quality意指高素质人才,quantity指招募的人才数量多。归纳考虑,译为:大批精英人才。


In the first quarter of this year Netflix added 7.4m net new subscribers worldwide. That gave it a total of 125m, 57m of them in America. With an average subscription of $10 a month, those customers represent some $14bn in annual revenue which the company will plough straight back into programming, marketing and technology—along with billions more that it will borrow. Goldman Sachs, a bank, thinks that it could be spending an annual $22.5bn on content by 2022. That would put it within spitting distance of the total currently spent on entertainment by all America’s networks and cable companies.


本年第一季度,Netflix在世界范围内新增740万订阅者,总订阅数到达了1亿2500万人,其间5700万来自美国。单个用户每月的订阅费为10美元,合计带来了约140亿美元的年收入。Netflix将这些收入连同假贷的数亿美元投入节目再制造,商场营销及科技立异。高盛银行以为,Netflix在2022年前每年可投入225亿美元用于内容制造。它的总出资金额现已抵得上近期美国一切网络及有线电视公司用于文娱内容上的总开销了。


Enticed by such prospects, the market values Netflix at $170bn, which is more than Disney. Some analysts see this as outlandish for a company which is spending far more than it collects in revenues, which has $8.5杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzobn in debt and hasn’t even had that many hit programmes. Its competitors, though, see it as a call to arms. It was the prospect of building a similarly integrated producer, purchaser and distributor of content that led AT&T, a wireless giant, to buy Time Warner for $109bn. If Comcast, America’s largest broadband provider, buys most of 21st Century Fox from the Murdoch family for more than $70bn, it will be to a similar end—and if the Fox goes杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzo to the mouse house instead, it will be because Disney knows that to compete with the new giant it needs to own even more content than it already does.


遭到这样的远景影响,Netflix取得了高于迪斯尼的1700亿商场估值。在一些剖析师看来,这是很不寻常的---Netflix的开销远高于其收入,该公司具有85羊哥好声响亿美元的债款,也没有那么多抢手节目。不过,它的竞赛对手将其视为死敌。集制片、购买和分销于一身是很有远景的,无线巨子AT&T以1090亿美元的价格收买时代华纳也正是依据这样的考量。假如美国最大的宽带供给商康卡斯特(Comcast)以逾越700亿美元的价格从默多克宗族手中收买21世纪福克斯(21st Century Fox)的大部分股票,将会是相似的成果。相反,假如福克斯被迪斯尼收买,那是因为迪斯尼知道与新巨子竞赛需求许多新的节目内容。


Amazon, Apple, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram are all developing programming efforts of their own. “The first thought on everyone’s mind is how do we compete with Netflix?” says Chris Silbermann, managing director of ICM, an agency that represents a number of people who have signed huge deals with Netflix, including Ms Rhimes and the comedians Jerry Seinfeld (another $100m deal) and Chris Rock (two comedy specials for a reported $40m). “Apple wouldn’t even be thinking about this business if it wasn’t for Netflix,” says Mr Silbermann. “Neither would Fox be in play.” Rupert Murdoch chose to break up Fox to get out of Netflix’s way. Jeff Bewkes, the former chief of Time Warner, acknowledged after agreeing to sell his company that Netflix’s direct connection to the consumer gave it a huge advantage.


Amazon、 Apple、 Facebook、YouTube和Instagram都在开发自己的程序。ICM的总经理克里斯•西尔伯曼(Chris Silbermann)标明:“每个人都会首要考虑怎样与Netflix竞赛”,ICM是一家署理公司,该组织代表了许多与Netflix签署巨额协议的人,包含莱姆斯和喜剧演员杰瑞•宋飞(Jerry Seinfeld)(另一笔1亿美元的买卖),以及克里斯•洛克(Chris Rock,据报道签下了报价4000万美元的两场喜剧特约表演)。希尔伯曼标明:“假如不是Netflix,苹果乃至不会考虑这项事务,福克斯也不会参加其间”。鲁珀特•默多克(Rupert Murdoch)挑选分拆福克斯,以脱节N深一点etflix的阻止。时代华纳被收买之后,其前首席执行官杰夫•比克斯(Jeff Bewkes)供认,Netflix与顾客的直接衔接为它自身带来了巨大的优势。


Nobody can watch everything...

没有人能看到一切....


For Mr Bewkes that was quite a reversal. At the beginning of this decade he poured scorn on the idea that Netflix could be a competitor, comparing it to the “Albanian army”. “He did not believe that the internet was going to be material for a very long time,” Reed Hastings, co-founder and chief executive of the Albanian forces, recently told The Economist in Amsterdam, Netflix’s European headquarters.


比照克斯先生(Mr.Bewkes)而言,这是个巨大的情绪改动。十年前,他并不以为Netflix或许会成为竞赛对手,还将Netflix比作“阿尔巴尼亚戎行”。“他以为互联网不会有什么大作为”,这支流媒体范畴的“阿尔巴尼亚戎行”的联合创始人兼首席执行官里德黑斯廷斯(Reed Hastings)最近在坐落于阿姆斯特丹的Netflix欧洲总部承受《经济学人》的采访时这样标明。


What Mr Bewkes missed, but Mr Hastings did not, was not just that the wireless internet would become a reliable conduit for high-quality video, but that in doing so it would change the rules of television. There would be新中国奇疑要案20例 no time slots and no channels, no waiting until next week to see whom the Lannisters betray or the Good Wife sleeps with. Given big enough pipes—in September 2017 Netflix streams were taking up 20% of the world’s downstream bandwidth, according to Sandvine, a network-equipment firm—a company would be able to offer every one of its customers something he wanted to watch, whenever and wherever he wanted to香坂 watch it, for as long as he wanted to.


比克斯(Bewkes)疏忽的这点正是黑斯廷斯所留心的:无线网不只会成为高质量视频播映的牢靠途径,也将借此而改动电视规矩。因为没有播映周期和固定频道的约束,用户不必比及下周才干看到兰尼斯特(《冰与火之歌》人物)变节了谁,还有《傲骨贤妻》(Good Wife)里的情人是谁。据网络设备公司Sandvine称,因为播映途径满足多,2017年9月,Netflix网流占有全球下行带宽的20%。该公司能为每位用户供给其想观看的任何内容,只需用户乐意,他们就能随时随地地观看节目。


That company would need two things: a big, broad, frequently renewed range of programming; and an understanding of its consumers deep enough to serve up to each of them the morsels most likely to appeal. This mixture of breadth and depth, of content and distribution, of the global and the personal, is the heart of Netflixonomics—the science of getting people to subscribe to television on the internet.


Netflix需求做两件作业:树立一套巨大广泛,且常常更新的程序以及取得对顾客的深化了解,这样才干为每位顾客供给最有招引力的套餐。广度和深度、容量和散布以及群众向和个性化等各方面结合构成了Netflix经济学的中心,其意图就是让咱们经过互联网订阅电视节目。


One of the reasons that Netflix is spending in such haste is that Netflixonomics is a winner-takes-most proposition. People can onl穿越aboy spend so much time being entertained by television. If you can provide them with entertainment they genuinely enjoy for that length of time, they will have little reason to pay anyone else for further screen-based entertainment—though they may splash out more for sport, and put up with adverts for news, real or fake. Being big early thus constitutes a first-mover advantage. And the dash towards size has the helpful side-effect of driving up rivals’ production costs at the same time as it eats into their revenues. Netflix is “intentionally trying to destro老友姐妹2y us, the existing ecosystem,” says one Hollywood executive.


 Netflix如此快捷的进行出资,原因之一在于Netflix经济本就是一个赢者通吃的经济方法。人们花在电视文娱上的时刻是有限的,倘若有媒体在这有限的时刻内能够供给给观众真实喜爱的文娱节目,那么他们也就没有理由再去为其他的文娱性电视节目付费了——虽然或许在运动类电视节目花上一大笔钱,并且还要为了看新闻不得不忍耐各种广告。这一迅猛攻势不只要助于进步竞赛对手的出产本钱,一起又削减了他们的收入,正所谓“早上的鸟儿有虫吃”。一位好莱坞高管标明,“Netflix有意炸毁咱们现有的经济生态系统。”


Todd Juenger of Sanford Bernstein, a research firm, says Netflix could have 300m subscribers by 2026, with revenues per subscriber of $15 a month; that suggests $24bn in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation and an enterprise value of at least $300bn, Mr Juenger argues. With investors expecting further growth on top of that, its market value would be a lot higher.


研讨公司桑福德--伯恩斯坦(Sanford Bernstein)的托德荣格(Todd Juenger)标明,到2026年,Netflix将具有3亿多用户,用户每月在Netflix上的消费为15美元,这也就意味着Netflix将取得240亿美元的税折旧摊销前赢利,其企业价值至少为3000亿美元。出资者估量Netflix的收益有望进一步增加,因而其市值将更高。


One far-reaching effect of Netflixonomics is that it has changed the calculus of whether a show or film is worth making. The company has identified some 2,000 “taste clusters” by watching its watchers. Analysis of how well a programme will reach, draw and retain customers in specific clusters lets Netflix calculate what sort of acquisition costs can be justified for it. It can thus target quite precise niches, rather than the broad demographic groups broadcast television depends on. Decisions about what projects to pursue, and whether to make them, are up to the executives in Hollywood; Mr Sarandos has 20 people working for him who have the coveted power to “green light” a project. But the boffins at headquarters in Los Gatos help set the budgets.


Netflix经济学的深远影响在于它改动了决议一个节目或许电影是否值得制造的判别方法。Netflix公司现现已过观测用户发现了约2000个“味觉群”。经过剖析某档节目在特定集群中有望在何种程度上招引及留住客户,公司能够计算出合理的收买本钱。因而,它能够适当精确地瞄准商场,而不是像播送电视类节目那样依靠广泛集体。好莱坞的高管们有权决议出资什么样的项目,以及是否要展开这些项目;Sarandos先生就具有心旷神往的“绿灯”权,有20名职工在好莱坞为他效能,但他的预算却是由洛斯加托斯总部的研讨人员拟定的。


Once a show is ready for delivery, it is up to executives in Los Gatos like Todd Yellin, vice-president of product, to work out how to get it to the appropriate users and check that they are, in the corny parlance of the company, “delighted” by it. Netflix customers will scroll through 40 or 50 titles on their individualised homescreen, he says, before they choose a title. The choice can come down to details like the poster art, which Netflix tweaks algorithmically according to the aspects of a film or show that would appeal most to a given user.


一旦一个节目预备好搬上银幕,洛斯加托斯的高管们,比方产品副总裁托德•耶林(Todd Yellin),就得想办法把它推送到中意的用户面前,浅显地说,就是取悦他们。托德•耶林(Todd Yellin)说,Netflix的客户在挑选电影之前,会在个性化的主屏幕上翻滚阅读40或50部影片。这一挑选能够归功于例如海报艺术等的细节处理。Netflix会依据电影或电视剧中最招引订阅用户的某些方面来调整海报设计。


The combination of personalisation and reach makes the Netflix homescreen the most powerful promotional tool in entertainment, according to Matthew Ball, a digital-media analyst. It lets the company get better results for a lesser-quality show than i杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzots peers can by showing it only to those who will like it. Most readers of The Economist will not have heard of “The Kissing Booth”, a romantic high-school comedy released in May. Critics hated it. But it has been seen by more than 20m households; millions of teenagers targeted by algorithms seem smitten b杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzoy its leads, Jacob Elordi and Joey King.


数字媒体剖析师马修•鲍尔(Matthew Ball)标明,个性化和广撒网的结合使Netflix的界面成为文娱范畴最强壮的宣扬东西。即就是一部质量较差的节目,Netflix也能让它做的比同行更好,因为Netflix只给那些或许喜爱这个节意图人推送。《经济学人》的大多数读者或许都没听说过五月份上映的浪漫学校喜剧《接吻亭》。谈论家厌烦它,但它的观看量到达了2000多万,数百万被算法选出的青少年好像被它的主角雅各布埃洛迪(Jacob Elordi)和乔伊金(Joey King)迷住了。


Its quantitative understanding, and personalised marketing, of niche projects has seen Netflix revive cancelled shows with loyal fan bases, such as “Gilmore Girls”, and take up shows others turned down, such as “The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”. It has got Emmy nominations for the A-list cast of a show about a pair of elderly women, jilted by their gay husbands, making sex toys (“Grace and Frankie”). Doc杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzoumentaries like “Wild Wild Country” became hot not just by word of mouth, but by being pushed on the homescreen, poster by individualised poster.


Netflix对小众节意图量化了解和个性化营销,使其从头推出了《吉尔莫尔女孩》(Gilmore Girls)等具有忠诚的粉丝根底但被停播的节目,并接手了《我本刚强》(The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt)等被其他公司回绝的节目。其旗下《同妻沙龙》(“Grace and Frankie”)取得了艾美奖提名(该剧阵型强壮,叙述了两位老妇人被同性恋老公扔掉,制造性爱玩具的故事)。像《异狂国度》(Wild Wild Country)这样的纪录片变得炙手可热不只是因为其口碑,还因为主屏幕上的个性化海报。


...but everybody can watch something

但每个人都能看到一部分


Netflix can take risks on such projects because failure costs it less than it does others. It does not shepherd users towards shows their co-clusterers have hated, so few 1183199come to distrust the brand because of seeing things they really do not like. Stinkers do not impose the opportunity costs of a poor performer in prime-time; no other shows have to be cancelled because the network could not programme Wednesday nights. The stuff for which there is no market just disappears.


Netflix能在这类项目上冒险是因为失利的本钱比其他公司低。他们不会诱导用户去看其地点集体厌烦的节目,所以很少有人因为看到自己不喜爱的东西而讨厌这一品牌。残次的电视节目不会让演技平平的表演者支付机会本钱;没有节目会因为无法在周三晚上播出而被撤销。而产品一旦没有商场就会消失无踪。


Cheap, personalised, advertising-free, binge-released video is widely seen as having hastened a decline in audiences for broadcast television, thus doing a great deal of damage to television advertising. It has also led millions of American households to dispense with pay-TV. Americans aged 12-24 are watching less than half as much pay-TV as in 2010, according to Nielsen data; those aged 25-34 are watching 40% less. Networks devoted 写真女to scripted entertainment or children’s programming, as opposed to news and sports, have been hardest hit.


人们遍及以为,廉价的、个性化的、无广告的、循环播映的视频加速了播送电视观众的削减,因而对电视广告造成了很大的损伤,也导致数百万的美国家庭抛弃付费电视。据尼尔森数据显现,12到24岁的美国人看付费电视的时刻比2010年削减了一半,25到34岁的人看付费电视时刻削减40%。专门播出依照脚本进行的文娱节目和儿童节意图网络受影响最大,播映新闻和体育节意图受影响最小。


To stay in the game, cable networks and other streaming services have commissioned hundreds of hours of high-quality scripted programming, providing an unprecedented glut of good television drama. This has in turn been bad for cinemas. Ticket sales in America and Canada declined by more than 20% between 2002 and 2017—and by 30% on a per head basis. American studios are now either in the blockbuster business—the five Disney films released so far this year have made over $4bn worldwide—or devoted to low-budget offerings best enjoyed with a crowd, like horror.


为了在竞赛中生存下来,有线电视网络和其他的流媒体效劳商现已托付制造了数百小时的高质量的有脚本的节目,供给了史无前例的许多优异电视剧。而这又对电影院产生了晦气影响。美国和加拿大的电影票房在2002和2017年间下降了逾越20%,人均票房下降了30%。美国的电影公司要么专心于制造大片,比现在年发行的5部迪士尼电影现已取得了逾越四百万美元的全球票房;要么致力于制造小众低本钱影片,比方恐惧片。


Netflixonomics is also changing the way shows make money. Netflix usually buys up exclusive worldwide rights to the shows it makes and acquires, paying a mark-up over production costs. Creators forgo lucrative licensing of their shows to secondary markets because, in Netflixonomics, there are no secondary markets. That produces handsome upfront deals, but offers much less to the producers if they make something that outperforms expectations. And the bigger Netflix’s share of the market, the less generous its upfront deals may need to be.


Netflix经济学还在改动电视剧的盈余方法。通常情况下,无论是自家出品仍是购买所得,Netflix都以高于制造本钱的价格买断这些节意图全球独家版权。Netflix经济学中不存在二级商场,所以制片商不得不抛弃将他们的节目授权下一级商场并以此牟利的主意。在这种情况下,前期合同能赚一大笔,但即便后期这些节目取得超出预期的作用,制片商也无法得到较高的报答。Netflix的商场比例越大,前期买卖缩水越严峻。


Feel what the community feels

感社区所感


So producers are delighted to see competitors trying to emulate Netflix’s model of integrated production and distribution. Under AT&T, its new owner, HBO is expected to accelerate its move away from its premium-cable base towards direct-to-consumer streaming. It is investing more in shows developed outside America, too, and unwinding partnerships with foreign distributors so that it can stream its own wares worldwide. It will spend over $2.5bn on content this year—as will Hulu, a US-only streaming service co-owned by four studios and best known for its drama “The蹂 Handmaid’s Tale”. Apple has hired Hollywood executives to build out a television offering to which it has committed at least $1bn so far. YouTube—which is more watched than Netflix, but accounts for less of the internet’s bandwidth because of its lower definition—also has a subscription service alongside its much larger free-to-view business. Disney is pulling its films off Netflix and launching its own streaming service next year, hoping that its roster of Pixar, Marvel and “Star Wars” movies, not to mention copious princesses, gives it a must-have edge.`


因而,各大竞赛者纷繁仿照Netflix的出产出售一体化方法,制片商当然脍炙人口。在新东家美国电话电报公司的领导下,家庭影院将加速转型,由从前的有线付费电视过渡到直接面向观众的流媒体方法。它也加大了对海外节意图出资,为了在全球范围内播出自己的节目,广泛与国外播映渠道展开协作。本年,它将在节目内容上投入25亿美元。这样做的还有Hulu,该公司是一家针对美国的流媒体效劳公司,由四家电影公司共有,其最著名的剧集是《使女的故事》。苹果已延聘好莱坞高管,预备打造一档节目,听说迄今为止已投入至少10亿美元。YouTube也在其免费观看的主营事务之外推出了付费订阅效劳。YouTube的浏欧美白叟览量比Netflix更多,但因为清晰度低,其互联网带宽占比不如后者。迪士尼将把其旗下的电影从Netflix下线,并于下一年推出自己的流媒体效劳,期望皮克斯、漫威和《星球大战》系列电影——当然还有许多的公主系列电影——能让它在商场中占有一席之地。


Amazon seems perhaps the best placed to compete globally. Its video service is already available pretty much everywhere Netflix is. Amazon Studios will spend more than $4bn this year on content. The company’s boss, Jeff Bezos, has said he wants Amazon to have hits as big and buzzy as HBO’s “Game of Thrones”. To that end the company paid $250m for the rights to make a “Lord of the Rings” TV show. But for Amazon, video will always be part of a bigger strategy. For Netflix it is everything.


亚马逊好像在全球竞赛中占有了最有利方位。其视频效劳早已包含Netflix地点的大部分地区。亚马逊影业本年将在内容上投入逾40亿美元。该公司的总裁杰夫贝佐斯曾标明,他期望亚马逊具有像HBO《权利的游戏》那样有影响力的电视剧。为此,该公司花费了2.5亿美元拿下《指环王》的电视版权。可是关于亚马逊来说,视频将永远是扩张战略中的一部分。而对Netflix来说,这就是悉数。


Netflix’s inves草鞋蚧tments beyond America give it an edge over all its competitors that goes beyond sheer size. It has started turning non-English-language shows into hits: “Money Heist”, a Spanish crime-caper series, and 尚一特加盟“Dark”, a piece of German science fiction about missing children, have both been watched by millions in the US, Mexico and Brazil. Nine out of ten people who watched “Dark” were from outside Germany. Upcoming releases include “Sacred Games”, Netflix’s first series in Hindi, and “Protector”, a Turkish superhero story. This summer “Jinn”, a supernatural teen drama in Arabic, will begin shooting in Amman and Petra. These shows will be dubbed into a range of other languages, as Netflix’s English-language shows are—and that range will include English. Americans are not accustomed to dubbing (outside of 1970s Bruce Lee films). But those watching “Dark” and “3%”, a dystopian Brazilian thriller, seemed to prefer it to subtitles.


Netflix在美国境外的出资使其在一切规划巨大的竞赛者中更具优势。该公司现已开端打造抢手的非英语电视节目:西班牙违法体裁剧《纸钞屋》和关于失踪儿童的德国科幻剧《暗黑》,在美国、墨西哥和巴西的观众到达上百万。九成《暗黑》的观众来自德国境外。行将上映的电视剧包含Netflix首部印度语剧集《崇高游戏》以及土耳其超级英豪故事《维护者》。这个暑假阿拉伯语超自然青少年戏曲《妖灵》将开端在安曼和佩特拉拍照。正如Netflix的英语电视节目相同,这些电视节目将用包含英语在内的多种语言进行配音。美国人不习惯配音(除了20世纪70年代李小龙的电影)。可是,那些看《暗黑》和巴西反乌托邦惊悚剧《3%》的观众,相关于字幕好像更喜爱配音。


By offering shows more out-of-the-ordinary and expensive than companies looking just at local markets can normally afford, these shows are meant to make Netflix an enticing premium product. They also allow it to sniff out the best writers and directors. In June Baran bo Odar and Jantje Friese, the creators of “Dark”, signed up to make more shows for Netflix.


比较那些只专心于本地商场的公司,Netflix所供给的节目更为别致、价格也更贵重,旨在将Netflix打造成为有招引力的优质产品。这些节目也让Netflix开掘了一批最优异的编剧和导演。《暗黑》的主创巴伦博欧达尔(Baran bo Odar)和耶弗里泽(Jantje Friese)在6月与Netflix签约,为其制造更多电视节目。


The company’s growth in international subscribers—up 48% in 2016 and 42% in 2017—suggests the strategy is working. Goldman Sachs, which is at the bullish end of Netflix assessments, finds that subscriber growth correlates with the rate at which new content is added. But Netflix faces several potential challenges. Its easy-sign-up subscription model is also easy to cancel. Netflix does not discuss its churn rate, but Moffett Nathanson, a research firm, estimates it to be about 3.5% a mont哥斯达黎加山君尾h. That is much higher than pay-TV (around 2%) and wireless providers (closer to 1%). A second problem is its thirst for bandwidth. In markets that lack net-neutrality protections (such as America), dominant internet providers might decide to give their own streaming services precedence over Netflix. Aware of such risks, the company is increasingly persuading internet and pay-TV distributors like Comcast, T-Mobile and Sky to bundle its service with theirs, an about-face for some of these incumbents.


Netflix的世界用户在2016年和2017年各增加了48%和42%,这标明其战略见效了。高盛集团在对Netflix的评价中持乐观情绪,以为用户增加与内容增加速度呈正相关。可是Netflix也面对潜在应战。易于注册的订阅方法相同易于撤销。Netflix没有谈论退订率,而研讨公司Moffett Nathanson估量其每月退订率约3.5%,远高于付费电视(约2%)和无线运营商(近1%)。第二个问题是对带宽的渴求。商场缺少对网络中立性的维护(如美国),首要的互联网供货商或许将自己的流媒体效劳放在优先于Netflix的方位。意识到这些危险,Netflix正尽力压服康卡斯特(Comcast)、T-Mobile和Sky等互联网和付费电视分销商,将Netflix与他们自己的效劳绑缚出售,这是一些现任分销商的一大改动。


There are other ways to stumble. Entertainment companies are exposed to public concerns about behaviour at the top. Netflix dropped Mr Spacey from “House of Cards” after allegations of sexual misconduct and recentl ture scandals. And if the economy were to turn, reducing both consumers’ appetite for paid entertainment and investors’ appetite for junk bonds, a company which is valued entirely on the basis of putative profits after 2022 would be badly hit. Such a setback 李守洪排名大师would slow Netflix’s growth—and give deep-pocketed competitors like Amazon or Apple time to eat into its leads in inventory, tied-up talent and personalisation.


还有来自其他的方面的阻止。文娱公司因为高层的行为遭到大众帝王鲷重视。史派西(Spacey)控性侵后,Netflix在《纸牌屋》中将他弃用;最近又因种族诋毁言辞开除了一名高管。但这并不能保证今后不再呈现丑闻。假如经济状况发作改动,顾客将削减对付费文娱的喜好,出资者也会削减对废物债券的喜好,那么这家仅凭未来赢利估值的公司将遭受灭顶之灾。这样的波折将减缓Netflix的生长——并给予亚马逊或苹果等财力雄厚的竞赛者逾越它的机遇,消耗掉它在产品、人才和个性化效劳方面的优势。


Some think that, even without such a setback, Netflix’s prospects are being exaggerated. In April MoffettNathanson declared that it could not justify Netflix’s share price “under any scenario”. It did not advise selling the stock, though, noting that investors believed in the Netflix story. Shares have risen by 38% since then杏花村的女性,电视流媒体||Netflix之道,kenzo, as Netflix reported one of its strongest-ever quarters of subscriber growth.


有些人以为,即便不阅历这样的波折,Netflix的远景也被夸张了。四月,MoffettNathanson宣告它“在任何情况下”都不会以为Netflix的股价是合理的。不过,它并不主张兜售股票,并指出出资者对Netflix持有决计。从那今后,Netflix的股价就上涨了38%。据报道,这是Netflix用户增加最微弱的季度之一。


Sitting in Amsterdam, Mr Hastings appears unconcerned about competition. He argues there is room both for competitors to succeed and for Netflix to continue winning more screen time. He is instead looking towards the challenges of success—those that will arise when Netflix becomes a large presence in societies around the world. “What happened when Televisa used to be like 80% of the Mexican television market, what was it like then? What was their relationship with government, with the society?” Mr Hastings asks. Or Globo, a Brazilian media powerhouse. “How did they get along with their societies when they’re so strong? You have to be gentle obviously as you get that big. How did they pull that off?”


身在阿姆斯特丹的黑斯廷斯先生看起来对这场竞赛无动于衷。他以为关于Netflix的竞赛对手们来说仍然有进步的空间,关于Netflix来说也能持续赢得更多的机会在荧屏上大放异彩。相反,他正观望着成功路上的应战——Netflix一旦在全世界名列前茅,一些应战便会相伴而至。“Televisa在墨西哥电视商场的比例一度挨近80%,那时发作了什么呢?是什么样的场景呢?他们与政府、社会的联络又怎样?”黑斯廷斯(Mr Hastings)问道。或许说是巴西媒体巨子Globo。“他们自身变得如此强壮时,该怎样融入这个社会?很显然,一旦到达那样的规划,你有必要圆通。他们又是怎样做到的呢?”


The world’s first global television giant may yet get to find out.

世界上第一个全球电视业巨子仍然有待开掘。


Clarification (July 25th, 2018): The original version of this article suggested that 29.Netflix has never made a profit. It has in the past, and still does on paper. The wording has been changed to clarify that Netflix currently spends more than it collects in revenues.

弄清(2018年,725日):本文原稿标明Netflix并未盈余。曩昔它的确有过收益,现在所谓的收益也只能停留在账面。他们不得不改动说辞,供认现在的Netflix的确是捉襟见肘。


翻译组:

Sigrid ,英语喜好者 ,大四狗

Peter,外贸老狗,世界贸易专业

Carol Guo,雅思,痴迷柠檬烤鸭

Yang,喜好英语,经济学人喜好者

Sofia,翻译硕士,专八,备考二笔中

Sindy 英语专业,CATTI备考,作业党

Terri.Tan ,英语翻译专业,MTI二战狗

Zeppelin,背包客,英专,白话喜好者

Evelyn,女,英专本科生,经济学人粉丝

Rachel,女,处女座翻译生,经济学人粉

Victoria,刚完结考研党,经济学人喜好者

Maggie,女, 外语翻译学生 ,经学崇拜粉

Emily 非英语专业,不久前完结托福GRE备考,英语喜好者


校正组:

Olivia,英专大四 财经翻译实习生

Kemay,决计练好笔译的未来口译员

Bruce, 精力充沛,想要上山打山君的小菜鸟

lance ,冒牌美少女,知道几个字母的万年烤鸭

Julia,19考研党,非英语专业,经济学人喜好者


3


观念|谈论|考虑


谈论

Bruce, 精力充沛,想要上山打山君的小菜鸟

谈一谈视频渠道会员广告这件事。一般来说,人们购买会员效劳的原因大概有两个:一是能够观看到喜爱的某些影视剧和节目(版权为某一视频渠道独有),二是免除那些又臭又长的广告(视频渠道的收入来历之一,这儿说几个数据,在2015年爱奇艺广告收入占34亿,占营收的64%,在2018年爱奇艺广告收入增至93.3亿,却只占到营收的37%)。可是,当各大网站呈现了多种方法的会员专属广告时,付费用户不再是视频网站的金主,转而变成了待宰的羔羊。


说一说两种各有千秋的会员专属广告。


1.“创可贴”式广告,这类广告往往在适宜的场景下呈现,它会与影视剧剧情高度对应。举个比如,在《公民的民义》中,当高育良提到“死追究竟”的时分,屏幕上呈现了小狗吸尘器的广告,完成了内容和广告营销的完美贴合。是不是和创可贴很像呢?不过在我看来,与其说是创可贴,不如说是狗皮膏药,后者的特色和这种广告方法更为附近。


2.小剧场广告,这种方法的时长为30-60s, 内容是原班人马+剧场情形+省公民医院眼科王丽娅搞笑轻松+广告营销,加深了观众的代入感,完成了广告和内容的深度结合。毛主席从前说过没有知情权就没有发言权,秉持着这种情绪,我去看了几个《楚乔传》的小剧场广告合集。这儿只贴出《楚乔传》小剧场的一个合集,广告密布,请稳重点击。链接如下

https://haokan.baidu.com/v?pd=wisenatural&vid=12514131841362727527


看完几个合集,我感到的一点是这种方法含糊了正剧和广告的边界,出戏的或许性很高,别的一点是渠道把付费会员的智商按在地上冲突,或许还顺带着踩了两脚。忽然想到一个网友说的话,贴在这儿,“亲,您不开VIP, 您还看不到咱们这个广告呢。”


不过若是观众也为这种营销方法拍手叫好,那我回收我上述说的话并向他们诚挚抱歉,究竟广告商家、渠道、付费会员三者大快人心,好像都没什么丢失。插一句,这真的是为想看某些克己剧或许网剧的人量身定做的广告,顺带着广告商精准营销的战略也得以完成。


全国苦秦久矣,会员苦专属广告不已。值得考虑的一个问题是:视频渠道明知道这样会使得一些会员丢失,为何它们还要勇于如此行事?


接下来说一说Netflix, 我自己是Netflix的付费会员,这儿为防止有打广告之嫌,只说说几个中心的内容,内容世界化+彻底无广告+多元单一字幕+优质感官体会,这些效劳的条件只要一个,是付费用户。在空闲之余,只需在平板上翻开Neftlix,戴上耳机,世界就是你的。当然,Netflix也有问题,一个比较显着的是是版权问题,有许多大片它都是没有版权的,当然Netflix自身的内容现已满足丰厚了,尤其是它自身现已在向电视产业链的出产环节深化展开。


一个是买会员送专属广告,一个是买会员送优质体会,你会挑选哪一种呢?

   

4


愿景


打造

独立考虑 | 世界视界 | 英文学习

小组


现有经济学人谈论群一个,假如您也有喜好,可联络小编WeChat : foxwulihua。请咱们在后台回复“群规”,仔细阅读。因为每天加小编人许多,为进步功率,咱们增加后请答复三个问题(详见群规),以及做个简略的毛遂自荐,谢谢咱们。点击下方图片进行小程序打卡。


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